Why didn't Apple release iPhone5

OK after some evaluation, let's share my view on the Apple iPhone4S launch.

I suspect there is an iPhone5, however Apple has not released it yet. They we're going to release it, but not everything went according to plan. This is what happens when you are entering a new market that is already controlled by some serious players.


First the facts:
- Apple has released stunning performance, especially on the battery.
- Such a big spec upgrade usually comes with a design update at Apple.
- The design is like iPhone4
- The antenna is claimed to be working as it should
- Apple called its new software release iOS5
- The iPhone4S has no NFC
- The competition is moving ahead

Ok let's put this together. Apple has built a device that isn't world shocking but does enable great new functionality and they have used the new power. The camera seems great and the battery performance is amazing. This phone is now also more suitable for business use.

Apple usually updates / changes the design when the hardware is enhanced this much. Most recently, iPad2 and Macbook Air have undergone changes like these and were redesigned.
The design of the new iPhone has a big beautiful flaw, it still has a glass backplate. Anyone who has dropped an iPhone knows how fragile it is. While the iPhone has funcationality for business use and also the battery performance to deliver a full working day of calling, it is still to fragile.
The antenna is now supposed to do is job a lot better. This indicates that the iPhone4 would remain a product next to the new model just as the 3GS was.

iOS5 implicates an iPhone5 through it's version number. This has been announced quite some months ago. In my opinion Apple should have launched 4.5 if they we're to launch it on iPhone4S.
iPhone5 was widely rumoured to have NFC and that didn't release just yet.
And then we have the competition that is rapidly moving forward. Google has demonstrated the Nexus Prime, iPhone4S is being compared to Samsungs Galaxy SII which will have its successor rather sooner than later. Android is booming, but don't forget Microsoft and Nokia who are building Windows phones that will seemlessly work with Windows8, that might be a hit too. All of these are built to carry NFC.

So what's about the NFC. NFC enables phones to wirelessly communicate with other devices in very close range, like opening a sliding door, you have to be close enough for the sensor to notice you, when you are out of range it doesn't work, this principle makes NFC quite secure. Great for payments to merchants or between 2 NFC enabled phones. Google released Wallet, a payment system for NFC chip enabled phones (with Android). Payments like these are promising, they are on their way to becoming the next killer app in the mobile industry, combining communication devices and "always on" internet connectivity with the users wallet.

Apple will surely offer NFC on iPhone, Apple bets on killer things like the iPad, so it will hardly pass on a multibillion dollar yearly market for which they only need a chip, some kind of API / App and some infrastructure (they will know what they need). Further this enables you not only to really get into the wallet of your customers but also carry it for them.

But Apple has one weakness, they never bring hardware to market that is not fully funcationally usable. They cannot supply payment services on their own, they need connections to paymentsystems both in banks, creditcard companies and merchants. So they need partners. They must be negotiating at the moment, everybody in this field is.

So I believe Apple has built iPhone5. It has all the cool hardware specs of iPhone4S and maybe some more, like a bigger screen and more memory, a new design (the glass back has been replaced) and it has and NFC chip. The only problem is that they didn't finish their negotiations in time, they were a little behind schedule on the release already and they wanted to have new hardware in store before christmas.

That in my opinion is why 2,5 years old iPhone3GS is now free in the line up (maybe combined the with leftover stock they have), iPhone4 is cheap and iPhone4S is the top phone. Otherwise the iPhone4 would have been the startermodel (with the new antenna) and iPhone5 would carry all the fancy new stuff.

And it is not really a problem, just like with iPhone3GS in its time, this new phone will sell perfectly, lots of iPhone users want to renew their subscriptions and a new iPhone is there for them to do it with. So the marketing and sales goals will be met.

The question I have is: Will Apple find a suitable partner at the right conditions, be able to launch a new phone with NFC at a proper release interval and ship the new iPhone5 around the world, in time for the big NFC launch Visa and Samsung are planning for the 2012 summer Olympics in London?